ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly
Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.
Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results
Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1EXPE | EXPEDIA GROUP INC | Consumer Cyclical | $30.95B | 16.19% |
2AMCR | AMCOR PLC | Consumer Cyclical | $20.25B | 10.59% |
3IP | INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO | Consumer Cyclical | $17.97B | 9.40% |
4DKNG | DRAFTKINGS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $9.53B | 4.98% |
5EAT | BRINKER INTERNATIONAL INC | Consumer Cyclical | $8.21B | 4.29% |
6GAP | GAP INC | Consumer Cyclical | $7.46B | 3.90% |
7KMX | CARMAX INC | Consumer Cyclical | $7.46B | 3.90% |
8URBN | URBAN OUTFITTERS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $7.26B | 3.80% |
9ANF | ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO | Consumer Cyclical | $6.39B | 3.34% |
10BROS | DUTCH BROS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $5.89B | 3.08% |
11MOD | MODINE MANUFACTURING CO | Consumer Cyclical | $5.64B | 2.95% |
12CAKE | CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC | Consumer Cyclical | $5.29B | 2.77% |
13LEA | LEAR CORP | Consumer Cyclical | $5.23B | 2.74% |
14MBLY | MOBILEYE GLOBAL INC | Consumer Cyclical | $4.79B | 2.51% |
15BBWI | BATH & BODY WORKS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $4.25B | 2.22% |
16OPLN | OPENLANE INC | Consumer Cyclical | $4.22B | 2.21% |
17GEF | GREIF INC | Consumer Cyclical | $3.29B | 1.72% |
18SHOO | STEVEN MADDEN LTD | Consumer Cyclical | $3.01B | 1.58% |
19YETI | YETI HOLDINGS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $2.80B | 1.46% |
20RH | RH | Consumer Cyclical | $2.45B | 1.28% |
21BKE | BUCKLE INC | Consumer Cyclical | $2.26B | 1.18% |
22LIND | LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $2.24B | 1.17% |
23SAH | SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.90B | 0.99% |
24DRVN | DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.90B | 0.99% |
25THRM | GENTHERM INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.51B | 0.79% |
26CBRL | CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.45B | 0.76% |
27RVLV | REVOLVE GROUP INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.33B | 0.70% |
28MBC | MASTERBRAND INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.26B | 0.66% |
29ADNT | ADIENT PLC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.22B | 0.64% |
30BJRI | BJS RESTAURANTS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.20B | 0.63% |
31XPEL | XPEL INC | Consumer Cyclical | $1.04B | 0.54% |
32LGIH | LGI HOMES INC | Consumer Cyclical | $957M | 0.50% |
33BH | BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $880M | 0.46% |
34PLOW | DOUGLAS DYNAMICS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $866M | 0.45% |
35TRIP | TRIPADVISOR INC | Consumer Cyclical | $855M | 0.45% |
36KRT | KARAT PACKAGING INC | Consumer Cyclical | $707M | 0.37% |
37BALY | BALLY'S CORP | Consumer Cyclical | $582M | 0.30% |
38BRCB | BLACK ROCK COFFEE BAR INC | Consumer Cyclical | $483M | 0.25% |
39ETD | ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $446M | 0.23% |
40CSV | CARRIAGE SERVICES INC | Consumer Cyclical | $443M | 0.23% |
41HBB | HAMILTON BEACH BRANDS HOLDING CO | Consumer Cyclical | $410M | 0.21% |
42HVT | HAVERTY FURNITURE COMPANIES INC | Consumer Cyclical | $405M | 0.21% |
43MBUU | MALIBU BOATS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $400M | 0.21% |
44GCO | GENESCO INC | Consumer Cyclical | $387M | 0.20% |
45CTRN | CITI TRENDS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $359M | 0.19% |
46JILL | JJILL INC | Consumer Cyclical | $333M | 0.17% |
47MNRO | MONRO INC | Consumer Cyclical | $324M | 0.17% |
48CPS | COOPER-STANDARD HOLDINGS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $323M | 0.17% |
49KRUS | KURA SUSHI USA INC | Consumer Cyclical | $322M | 0.17% |
50ELA | ENVELA CORP | Consumer Cyclical | $270M | 0.14% |
51LE | LANDS' END INC | Consumer Cyclical | $264M | 0.14% |
52KWY | KINGSWAY CORP | Consumer Cyclical | $263M | 0.14% |
53LOVE | LOVESAC CO | Consumer Cyclical | $220M | 0.11% |
54ZUMZ | ZUMIEZ INC | Consumer Cyclical | $216M | 0.11% |
55LCUT | LIFETIME BRANDS INC | Consumer Cyclical | $177M | 0.09% |
56MPAA | MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA INC | Consumer Cyclical | $146M | 0.08% |
57SRI | STONERIDGE INC | Consumer Cyclical | $145M | 0.08% |
58WW | WW INTERNATIONAL INC | Consumer Cyclical | $123M | 0.06% |
59AKA | AKA BRANDS HOLDING CORP | Consumer Cyclical | $98M | 0.05% |
60NDLS | NOODLES & CO | Consumer Cyclical | $82M | 0.04% |
61RGS | REGIS CORP | Consumer Cyclical | $59M | 0.03% |
Full long-leg book as of November 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $191.23B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.
Size × value map of the long-leg book
Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 302-name universe at November 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.8B, Small < $1.3B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.64, Growth < 0.36 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 78% toward Large, 44% toward Growth. +7% unclassified (9 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.
Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998 → November 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 61 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.
How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here
These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.
7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.
1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.
Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.
No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.
Data version — panel=20261113T032607 rows=2198308 asof=202611 issuers=20261113T063725 rates=20261113T063725
Measured on the 2026-11 formation date across 61 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.
Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all
This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.
This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.
Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.
No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.
Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.
Informational — does not governThis fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.
historical method · 335 monthly observations · about 3.4 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months
The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.29 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.93 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.
Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.
The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.
See the long-short verdict on the factor page →Did the edge survive the paper coming out?
There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.
Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.
Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?
3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.
Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.
Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference
| Period | Long leg | Long-short |
|---|---|---|
| 1 yearcum. | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| 3 yearsp.a. | 10.5% | -4.0% |
| 5 yearsp.a. | -2.0% | -1.8% |
| 10 yearsp.a. | 8.1% | -8.2% |
| Since inceptionp.a. | 6.2% | -2.4% |
| Year | Long leg | Long-short |
|---|---|---|
| 202611 mo | 24.1% | 28.0% |
| 2025 | -0.9% | -10.2% |
| 2024 | 2.0% | -18.4% |
| 2023 | 70.2% | 20.5% |
| 2022 | -59.0% | -22.1% |
| 2021 | 26.0% | -10.2% |
| 2020 | 38.4% | -47.7% |
| 2019 | 38.8% | 15.5% |
| 2018 | -5.7% | 3.9% |
| 2017 | 8.8% | -14.6% |
| 2016 | 7.3% | -3.1% |
| 2015 | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| 2014 | 6.7% | 1.6% |
| 2013 | 43.4% | -0.7% |
| 2012 | 31.6% | 7.1% |
| 2011 | -4.1% | 0.3% |
| 2010 | 44.0% | 5.8% |
| 2009 | 48.3% | -10.0% |
| 2008 | -54.0% | -6.2% |
| 2007 | -21.0% | -24.0% |
| 2006 | 20.5% | 9.2% |
| 2005 | -5.5% | -7.3% |
| 2004 | 26.6% | 3.9% |
| 2003 | 69.2% | 19.7% |
| 2002 | -12.8% | 10.4% |
| 2001 | 38.7% | 35.3% |
| 2000 | -37.3% | 22.3% |
| 1999 | -20.3% | -28.3% |
Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through November 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.
The Foundry Consumer Cyclical Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Consumer Cyclical common stocks each month by a Short-Term Reversal signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.
This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.
Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.
Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.
Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.
Policies, construction, and governance.
One-page snapshot with top holdings.
Full current constituent list.
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.