What it measures

Stock return between months t-6 and t-1

Why it should work

Momentum: recent winners have historically kept outperforming recent losers over the following months.

Full Sharpe
0.44
Ann. Return (LS)
10.9%
Ann. Volatility
24.8%
Max Drawdown
-48.8%

Growth of $1 — long-short

Industry-relative (FF48) · cap-weighted · 331 months

Industry-relative (FF48)
Where the edge comes from
Long leg Sharpe
0.64
top bucket, long-only
Long leg ann. return
16.1%
the buyable side
Bottom bucket Sharpe
0.20
the basket we short
Bottom bucket ann. return
5.2%
lower ⇒ wider spread

The bottom-bucket figures are that basket’s ownreturn (a long position in what the strategy shorts) — not the short side’s P&L. Long-short return = long leg − bottom bucket, so a falling bottom bucket widens the spread.

Performance by period
train
val
test
Sharpe by split
Train ’00–’120.30
Val ’13–’180.93
Test ’19–’260.39
Test FF5 α (ann.)
14.1%
alpha vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
1.42
not significant
Monthly turnover
37%
of the long leg, per rebalance

Source study

Jegadeesh and Titman · 1993

Journal of Finance

17,341 citationsPublished +0.84%/mo · t 2.44
View on Google Scholar

Worked example

Live inputs for a real holding

AAPL · July 2026
InputValue
Adj. close (t−1)289.36
Adj. close (t−7)271.35
Formula
closeadj[t-1] / closeadj[t-7] - 1
Raw0.0664Signed (×+1)0.0664

signed_value is the internal ranking value; only its cross-sectional rank matters. $-vs-$M unit mix means ratio magnitudes carry a constant offset and are not comparable to textbook levels.

Replication

How closely this rebuild tracks the published research

Replicable
Open Source Asset Pricing signalMom6m
Correlation — full sample—
Correlation — test window—
Published monthly return0.84%
Published t-stat2.44

The OSAP comparison is only computed for the all-stocks variant — switch to “All stocks” above to see how the rebuild tracks the published series.

Style tilt

Size × value map of the long leg

306 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
2%3
32%26
61%64
1%23
1%34
2%51
<1%22
<1%25
<1%17

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 3,283-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.2B, Small < $819M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.62, Growth < 0.34 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 98% toward Large, 80% toward Growth. +1% unclassified (41 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt98% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt80% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998 → July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 306 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1993
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1993 paper.
Sharpe 0.4410.9% p.a.January 1999 – July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Relative VaR against the designated reference portfolio — as implemented here

long-short

This assessment describes the research long-short construction — long the top bucket, short the bottom.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i) relative VaR (exception unavailable)

This fund does NOT qualify for the limited-derivatives-user exception (100% of net assets vs <= 10% of net assets), so the relative VaR test governs. Note the inversion: a dollar-neutral long-short book suppresses the market risk the VaR ratio measures and so tends to pass it, while being barred from the exception by construction — what disqualifies the strategy is the exposure threshold, not the risk limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Does not qualify
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
100% of net assets
Margin
−90pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Not settled by the data
Measured
2.2 (95% CI 1.1-2.8)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
20.8%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

The interval spans the limit. The point estimate is 2.16x but the 95% interval runs 1.11–2.77x, which includes 2.00x. This test does not settle which side of the line the fund is on.

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.16x
over
parametric
1.60x
within
cornish fisher
2.21x
over · unreliable

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.16 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.60 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
85%
22 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.36
Sharpe, January 2004 – December 2006
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.52
Dispersion
0.39
Best window
1.17

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long-short is the research line; the long leg is what a long-only fund could hold

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong-shortLong leg
1 yearcum.-23.0%34.9%
3 yearsp.a.4.5%31.5%
5 yearsp.a.6.5%20.5%
10 yearsp.a.9.5%21.4%
Since inceptionp.a.8.0%13.8%
Calendar years
YearLong-shortLong leg
20267 mo7.8%32.6%
2025-32.4%-3.2%
202453.6%64.1%
2023-14.2%38.5%
202224.1%-18.4%
20210.4%11.1%
202056.9%68.1%
2019-11.2%18.6%
201817.2%-0.5%
201729.9%30.3%
2016-5.6%8.4%
201510.7%2.0%
201415.3%13.4%
20137.0%46.5%
2012-16.0%12.9%
20116.0%-1.9%
201024.5%36.6%
2009-41.2%5.3%
200837.8%-36.2%
200735.6%29.0%
2006-10.5%6.8%
20055.4%19.9%
2004-6.3%8.5%
200323.8%55.3%
20022.9%-29.6%
20015.4%-18.2%
200019.5%-12.6%
199949.3%99.3%

Long-short is the research line (long the top bucket, short the bottom); the long leg alone is what a long-only fund could actually hold. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Methodology

Signal computed monthly from Sharadar point-in-time data, signed so higher = higher expected return. Industry-relative: the signal is demeaned within its Fama-French 48 industry each month, then sorted across all stocks — removing industry tilts. The virtual ETF is long the top bucket, short the bottom, cap-weighted, rebalanced monthly. FF5 alpha regresses the long-short on the Fama-French 5 factors.

Hypothetical research backtest. Not an offer, recommendation, or investment advice.