What it measures

Stock return between months t-6 and t-1

Why it should work

Momentum: recent winners have historically kept outperforming recent losers over the following months.

Full Sharpe
0.36
Ann. Return (LS)
10.5%
Ann. Volatility
28.9%
Max Drawdown
-57.9%

Growth of $1 — long-short

Technology only · cap-weighted · 331 months

Technology only
Where the edge comes from
Long leg Sharpe
0.55
top bucket, long-only
Long leg ann. return
18.1%
the buyable side
Bottom bucket Sharpe
0.23
the basket we short
Bottom bucket ann. return
7.6%
lower ⇒ wider spread

The bottom-bucket figures are that basket’s ownreturn (a long position in what the strategy shorts) — not the short side’s P&L. Long-short return = long leg − bottom bucket, so a falling bottom bucket widens the spread.

Performance by period
train
val
test
Sharpe by split
Train ’00–’120.14
Val ’13–’180.07
Test ’19–’260.59
Test FF5 α (ann.)
25.0%
alpha vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
1.90
not significant
Monthly turnover
33%
of the long leg, per rebalance

Source study

Jegadeesh and Titman · 1993

Journal of Finance

17,341 citationsPublished +0.84%/mo · t 2.44
View on Google Scholar

Worked example

Live inputs for a real holding

AAPL · July 2026
InputValue
Adj. close (t−1)289.36
Adj. close (t−7)271.35
Formula
closeadj[t-1] / closeadj[t-7] - 1
Raw0.0664Signed (×+1)0.0664

signed_value is the internal ranking value; only its cross-sectional rank matters. $-vs-$M unit mix means ratio magnitudes carry a constant offset and are not comparable to textbook levels.

Replication

How closely this rebuild tracks the published research

Replicable
Open Source Asset Pricing signalMom6m
Correlation — full sample—
Correlation — test window—
Published monthly return0.84%
Published t-stat2.44

The OSAP comparison is only computed for the all-stocks variant — switch to “All stocks” above to see how the rebuild tracks the published series.

Style tilt

Size × value map of the long leg

82 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
10%2
25%5
62%23
<1%3
1%15
1%7
<1%12
<1%5
<1%5

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 421-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $8.9B, Small < $1.9B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.63, Growth < 0.38 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 99% toward Large, 77% toward Growth. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt99% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt77% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998 → July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 82 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1993
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1993 paper.
Sharpe 0.3610.5% p.a.January 1999 – July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Relative VaR against the designated reference portfolio — as implemented here

long-short

This assessment describes the research long-short construction — long the top bucket, short the bottom.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i) relative VaR (exception unavailable)

This fund does NOT qualify for the limited-derivatives-user exception (100% of net assets vs <= 10% of net assets), so the relative VaR test governs. Note the inversion: a dollar-neutral long-short book suppresses the market risk the VaR ratio measures and so tends to pass it, while being barred from the exception by construction — what disqualifies the strategy is the exposure threshold, not the risk limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Does not qualify
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
100% of net assets
Margin
−90pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Not settled by the data
Measured
2.5 (95% CI 1.2-3.3)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
23.9%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

The interval spans the limit. The point estimate is 2.48x but the 95% interval runs 1.22–3.30x, which includes 2.00x. This test does not settle which side of the line the fund is on.

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.48x
over
parametric
1.87x
within
cornish fisher
2.29x
over · unreliable

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.48 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.87 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
73%
19 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.34
Sharpe, January 2007 – December 2009
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.15
Dispersion
0.40
Best window
1.03

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long-short is the research line; the long leg is what a long-only fund could hold

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong-shortLong leg
1 yearcum.74.7%75.3%
3 yearsp.a.38.1%57.4%
5 yearsp.a.28.5%36.0%
10 yearsp.a.12.2%32.6%
Since inceptionp.a.6.5%13.7%
Calendar years
YearLong-shortLong leg
20267 mo54.5%67.1%
20254.6%26.3%
202457.9%65.1%
202318.3%69.5%
20225.9%-32.8%
2021-16.9%16.3%
202011.7%53.0%
20192.3%45.7%
2018-11.5%-6.0%
20175.5%44.7%
201614.2%28.5%
20150.5%0.2%
2014-7.7%9.2%
2013-2.0%43.7%
201213.5%25.4%
2011-2.7%-20.6%
201036.8%42.2%
2009-38.5%26.1%
20081.7%-50.3%
200717.3%25.5%
2006-14.0%0.8%
20053.0%10.3%
20046.4%0.9%
20033.4%53.9%
2002-32.4%-55.5%
2001-7.6%-36.1%
200047.8%-22.4%
199995.0%186.4%

Long-short is the research line (long the top bucket, short the bottom); the long leg alone is what a long-only fund could actually hold. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Methodology

Signal computed monthly from Sharadar point-in-time data, signed so higher = higher expected return. Restricted to the Technology sector, then sorted into quintiles within that sector. The virtual ETF is long the top bucket, short the bottom, cap-weighted, rebalanced monthly. FF5 alpha regresses the long-short on the Fama-French 5 factors.

Hypothetical research backtest. Not an offer, recommendation, or investment advice.